The hottest Shanghai glue price enters the sensiti

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Shanghai rubber price enters the sensitive area

Market Overview

K-line chart of Japanese rubber index contract

the chart is the K-line trend chart of Japanese rubber index contract. (picture source: Wenhua Finance)

K-line chart of Shanghai Jiao main contract

the chart shows the K-line trend chart of Shanghai Jiao main contract. (picture source: Wenhua Finance)

domestic rubber prices this week mainly fell. The main contract 1105 fell from above 40000 last Friday to around 38000 this Friday, a decrease of 5%, and a decrease of nearly 12% from the highest point of 43500 to now. Domestic rubber prices fell continuously this week, destroying the previous rising pattern. At present, they are in the correction stage, and the overall situation is weak

this week, the price of Tokyo gum also fell from its high. The Japanese gum index hit a record high of 540.3 on Friday, and then fell back in shock, closing at 531.4 yen on Friday. This week's five trading days were dominated by declines. As of Friday, the closing price could be adjusted back to the experimental speed by nearly 7.6%, and the price fell back to below 500 yen

one week market analysis

the price of Shanghai Rubber entered the sensitive area

since the interest rate hike in the second half of last year, the team created materials with a predictable life of several minutes or hours, and predicted the pace of macro-control to the market twice. Then it increased the bank reserve ratio again and again, undoubtedly lowering the temperature of market liquidity. Recently, China is in the midst of a new round of macro-control. The high commodity prices have fallen, and the sudden change in the situation in the Middle East has deepened the strength of this round of adjustment. The price of domestic rubber futures fell into a sideways trend after opening high on the first trading day after the Spring Festival. After that, the price fell rapidly from the high level in two weeks. The price fell nearly 5500 points from the highest point of 43500 to around 38000 at present

from the technical point of view, Shanghai Jiaotong is weak as a whole, but the main 05 contract is close to the 60 day moving average, which happens to be the dense area of early shocks. We can see that the current domestic futures price is a forward discount structure, and the forward September contract price is weaker. On Friday, the price broke the 60 day moving average, but it still closed up. From a technical point of view, the 60 day moving average does support the price

from the perspective of the extent of price decline and technical position, we say that Shanghai Jiaotong is currently in a stage of high risk. The market may be a V-shaped reversal in the bull market or a callback in the bull market. From the daily line, although the short-term upward trend has been destroyed, it is still uncertain whether the medium-term bull market is over

from the perspective of internal and external price difference, the price difference has narrowed this week. This week, the US dollar quotation of No. 20 standard glue in the Singapore futures market fell back, from the record high of US $5750/ton after the holiday to US $5350/ton at the end of this week, equivalent to a compound import price of about 41500 yuan/ton, down nearly 2400 yuan from the high of last week. The monthly contract price difference with Shanghai Jiao spot is 2500 yuan, which is narrower than that of last week. As of the end of this week, the quotation of the main contract of Tokyo No. 3 cigarette glue was close to 475 yen/kg, equivalent to about 5800 US dollars/ton. The full import price was 47700 yuan/ton, and the price fell by nearly 4000 yuan from the highest of more than 50000 yuan

under the current domestic macro policy background, the bull market pace of domestic rubber has declined. Although we cannot predict whether the current domestic rubber price is in the bull to bear stage or the correction in the bull market, the current price has indeed entered a high-risk area since the beginning of the bull market in 2009. Investors should be cautious and step on the pace

auto production fell in January and sales increased

this week, the China Automobile Industry Association announced the production and sales of Chinese cars in January 2011. In January, the production and sales of cars were 1.7979 million and 1.8943 million respectively, an increase of 11.33% and 13.81% year-on-year respectively; Production decreased by 3.58% month on month, and sales increased by 13.67%. It can be seen from the data in January that although the monthly sales volume hit a record high, the overall growth rate has fallen sharply, and the month on month production has declined. This situation is mainly related to the withdrawal of relevant consumption encouragement policies and the implementation of purchase restriction policies, the decline trend of the base number of the previous year compared with the hardness, and various enterprises made certain production reserves for the festival at the end of the previous year. Contrary to the situation that production exceeded sales in December last year, sales in January was significantly greater than production, digesting part of the enterprise inventory

there are actually two major factors for the sharp increase in vehicle sales in January - smooth sales and dealers replenishing inventory. The so-called smooth sales volume means that the car was sold last year and the invoice was issued this year. On the one hand, most of the data released by major car companies are wholesale data, that is, the data of car companies' sales to dealers. Last year, in order to catch up with the last bus with preferential policy subsidies, many consumers ordered from the dealer in advance, but they could not pick up the car until the year because the supply was in short supply. On the other hand, in December last year, many car companies have completed the task of the whole year, so part of the sales will be transferred to January this year according to the Convention. Another factor is replenishment. Domestic automobile inventory equivalent is usually 1.5 to 2 months. Therefore, major mainstream automobile enterprises were busy replenishing inventory in January this year. Judging from these two factors, the booming car sales in January this year is not sustainable, and the cancellation of the three preferential policies of the car market at the beginning of this year has an impact on the market

Thailand's rubber production may increase in 2011

in the January report released by the organization of natural rubber producing countries in Asia, it is predicted that Thailand's natural rubber production will reach 3.247 million tons in 2011, an increase of 5.4%, higher than the production of 3.081 million tons in 2010. The organization also predicted that the total rubber production of the whole Southeast Asian rubber producing countries would reach 10.17 million tons in 2011, an increase of 7.7%, higher than the production of 9.444 million tons in 2010

on February 21, an official of the Thai Rubber Association said that since rubber trees planted during the expansion of the rubber industry launched by the government a few years ago began to produce latex, Thailand's rubber output will increase by 10% in 2011. At the same time, the vice president of Thai Hua Rubber public company, which is gradually becoming popular in the international market with excellent cost performance, said: "the rubber output of Thailand in 2011 was 3.3 million tons, higher than 3 million tons in 2010." On the sidelines of the rubber conference held in Siem Reap, Cambodia, he said that the rubber trees originally planted on 160000 hectares (395400 acres) of land expanded in 2004 would mature, and latex production would begin this year, boosting production

the government has also promoted the second stage of expansion, planting 128000 hectares from this year, as farmers are expected to benefit from the current high prices. The output is expected to increase to 3.7 million tons in 2015, when all new rubber trees planted during the first expansion will begin to produce latex. Thailand is the world's largest rubber producer and exporter, with 2.9 million tons of rubber exported in 2011, up from 2.7 million tons in 2010

in the off-season of rubber tapping, the stock of the exchange continued to decline

as of February 25, the rubber inventory of the Shanghai exchange was 54640 tons, declining for the sixth consecutive week. This week, the registered warehouse receipts of rubber futures on the exchange decreased by 1490 to 38685. The stock of the exchange rose from a historical low of less than 20000 tons in early June last year to a level above 60000 tons, and there were signs of decline in the stock in the past six weeks. Compared with 150000 tons in the same period last year, the current inventory level is relatively low. There are indeed seasonal factors in inventory changes. From the perspective of historical inventory changes, inventory basically rises gradually after October every year. The domestic rubber cutting stopped gradually after the middle of November, and the goods hoarded by traders in the peak season of rubber cutting gradually appeared when the cutting was about to stop. At present, the domestic rubber has entered the cut-off period, but the stock in the domestic rubber cut-off period shows signs of decline, indicating that the spot is indeed tight, and the price difference between foreign rubber prices and domestic rubber makes domestic rubber more attractive

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