The hottest pressure is heavy, and the prospect of

2022-10-23
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The pressure is heavy, and the prospect of 100 billion methanol investment is worrying.

the methanol industry is facing the dual pressure of excessive capacity growth and the impact of imported products. "The methanol price has hovered around the cost line for about twoorthree months, the industry operating rate is 30-40%, the manufacturer's shipment situation is not very good, and it is unlikely to improve within the year." Wang Min, an analyst of China chemical industry, said anxiously

according to Li Linlin, a researcher at Zhongyuan securities, the methanol industry is still starting. The driving force of the new project may come from the imagination of the application of methanol and gasoline. However, the underground channel has mixed methanol with gasoline, and the growth space of downstream demand is not necessarily large. More insiders worry that if the industry downturn continues, hundreds of billions of methanol investment will be 4.94 percentage points lower than the national average; Industrial structure sheet 1 faces great risks

under heavy pressure

the data shows that the operating rate of the methanol industry was 42.88% in 2008 and 35.42% in 2009. The important reason for the decline in operating rate is the excessive growth of production capacity and the impact of imported products

in 2008, the domestic methanol production capacity was more than 26 million tons; In 2009, the domestic methanol production capacity increased by 5.25 million tons, and the total production capacity reached 32 million tons. In 2009, a total of 21 enterprises added methanol capacity, of which more than 300000 tons of new capacity are: Inner Mongolia xinauda banner plant (600000 tons), Shaanxi Xianyang chemical industry company (600000 tons), Shaanxi Yankuang coal Yulin Energy and chemical company (600000 tons), Jiangsu Thorpe chemical company (500000 tons), Shanghai Oriental hope group Dongneng chemical company (400000 tons), Shanxi Tianji Lu'an chemical company (300000 tons), etc

it is easy to understand the release of these new capacity. In, the international oil price soared, and the price of methanol and other chemical products also rose upward, once rising to 4800 yuan/ton. The passion of domestic enterprises to invest in coal to methanol projects was also ignited. Zheng long, Secretary General of China Engineering Plastics Industry Association, told that before 2008, China had invested about 7000 yuan in coal chemical industry, mostly methanol and dimethyl ether, in the process of quarterly maintenance

the greater pressure comes from the Middle East. Analysts from Asia Chemical consulting said that the cost of natural gas to methanol in the Middle East is low, and the cost of raw materials plus freight and tariffs is less than 1500 yuan/ton. Domestic methanol is difficult to compete with it, and has basically withdrawn from the southeast coastal market. Before, the price in East China was more expensive than that in Northwest China, but now it is more expensive in Northwest China

data show that in 2008, China imported 1.44 million tons of methanol and exported 364100 tons; In 2009, China's import of methanol increased to 5.288 million tons, while its export fell to 13900 tons

investment does not decrease

with the low start-up rate is the decline in methanol prices. After May, 2008, the price of methanol fell all the way. At present, the price of methanol has hovered around 2000 yuan/ton for twoorthree months. Zheng Long said that many coal to methanol projects launched in 2008 are now losing money

facing this situation, some companies that "know the current affairs" began to become cautious. Tianmao group announced in April this year that the board of directors of the company decided to withdraw the materials of non-public offering of shares and terminate the work of non-public offering of shares. According to the announcement in 2009, the company originally planned to raise funds to build a 200000 ton/year methanol project, which is expected to achieve an average annual sales revenue of 669 million yuan after reaching the production capacity

however, a few people have retreated, and the investment enthusiasm of the methanol industry remains undiminished. According to statistics, China's methanol production capacity will still increase significantly this year, and the total scale of the units expected to be put into operation is more than, at the same time, the cost is basically equivalent to 5million tons

the Datang Toronto coal based olefin project is expected to be put into operation this year, with a supporting methanol plant capacity of about 1.7 million tons. Guanghui shares announced on April 1 that the company's annual output of 1.2 million tons of methanol/800000 tons of dimethyl ether (coal based) project was officially approved by the national development and Reform Commission. Yanchang Petroleum Group also signed a 1.8 million ton methanol and deep processing project in Xi'an on April 10

where is the road?

the downstream of methanol includes formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, DMF, etc. the demand is relatively stable, and there is no explosive growth point. So who drove the high investment enthusiasm? Where is the way out for excess methanol

Li Linlin, a researcher at Zhongyuan securities, believes that enterprises mainly see the huge market space for the application of methanol gasoline in the future. At present, the application of methanol gasoline is still controversial, and its use is also limited. The main reason is that the use of methanol gasoline will shorten the service life of the engine, and the mixing proportion has no national standard

however, methanol blended gasoline has been used. Liuxintian, editor in chief of China Chemical Information Center, said, "last year, millions of tons of methanol disappeared. An important destination is to mix gasoline. Selling methanol as gasoline is really a huge profit. Some private gas stations are doing this, which is no secret in the industry." Li Shi made rapid and nondestructive qualification inspection on seamless steel pipe materials, and Linlin also saw this. She believed that if this factor was taken into account, there might not be much room for the growth of downstream demand for methanol

The deep processing of methanol is another way out. Methanol is the first product in the coal chemical industry chain, and its downstream can be extended to a variety of other chemical products, such as olefins, ethylene glycol, etc. In the view of Yahua consulting analysts, this is also a promising application. It is understood that by the end of 2010, China's ethylene glycol production capacity was nearly 4million tons, and there was a gap in domestic supply

Li Linlin said that the prospect of methanol industry is still uncertain. Methanol to olefin technology is not mature and has not been industrialized on a large scale. Methanol to ethylene glycol faces the risk of global overcapacity and the impact of low-cost products in the Middle East

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