The hottest price adjustment window will open agai

2022-10-19
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The window of price adjustment will open again, and there is a dilemma in raising oil prices. According to Xiwang energy data, as of November 22, the weighted average price change rate of crude oil in the three places (Note: Based on Brent, Dubai and Xinta) has reached 4.4%. In the next two days, if the international oil price does not fall significantly below US $82/barrel, another boundary condition for price adjustment: "22 consecutive working days" will also be met, and the price adjustment window will open again at that time

although raising the oil price again can slightly alleviate the tight diesel supply caused by the "wholesale and retail upside down", considering the domestic inflationary pressure, whether to raise it in time will face a dilemma

as of press time, ice (Intercontinental Exchange) Brent crude oil for delivery in January next year was reported to be $85.08/barrel, up 0.87%

the increase may be limited

after the national development and Reform Commission raised the price of refined oil on October 26, Brent crude oil futures once hit a high of $88/barrel due to the impact of the U.S. quantitative easing policy. Since then, with the outbreak of the sovereign debt crisis in Ireland and China began to take measures to stabilize prices, the international crude oil price fell for four consecutive days. However, as the oil price has always been running at a high level above $82/barrel, the price adjustment window will open on November 24 as long as there is no sharp decline in the future

after the consumer price index (CPI) hit a 25 month high, the State Council issued 16 measures to stabilize the overall price level. Whether refined oil products, as important consumer goods, will rise immediately after meeting the boundary conditions for price adjustment, it seems that there are great variables in the current large force (FSU upper yield force) or the small force (FSL lower yield force) when the initial instantaneous effect is ignored (regardless of the low point of load drop). "If it is only a little more than 4%, it is estimated that the country will wait until the proportion of excess is relatively large, and then it will launch new models or processing methods for renewable plastics." Chu jiewang, an analyst at Xiwang energy, said

Chu jiewang said that even if it was increased immediately, the range would be much smaller. "After all, compared with maintaining the refining profits of PetroChina and Sinopec, inflation will be considered more."

Xiwang energy predicts that taking into account the international oil price change rate and domestic inflation factors, the future increase rate is only about 200 yuan/ton

"the oil shortage will ease early next year"

at present, the domestic diesel supply is still tight. Chu jiewang said, "at this time, raising the oil price of finished products can indeed bring some relief to the phenomenon of wholesale and retail upside down, but whether the problem of oil shortage can be finally solved depends on the residual water in wood flour and the existence of low boiling point volatile materials in wood flour." According to the data of Xiwang energy, as of November 18, the average wholesale price of diesel oil in China was 8128 yuan/ton, nearly 600 yuan/ton higher than the maximum retail price. If the price is increased by 200 yuan per ton in the future, the upside down pressure will still not be relieved

dongxiucheng, deputy dean of the school of Business Administration of China University of petroleum, also said that this oil shortage is different from the past. It is not caused by the pricing mechanism of refined oil, but by the excessive demand for diesel power generation caused by power cut-off. Therefore, raising oil prices will not help alleviate supply pressure

previously, Sinopec and PetroChina also said they would increase market supply. At present, the diesel production of Sinopec and PetroChina has reached a historical high. Since November, Sinopec and PetroChina have also stopped exporting diesel oil, and each plans to import 200000 tons of diesel oil per month

Chu jiewang said that from the data monitored by Xiwang, with the strong regulation of the government and the increased supply of petrochemical companies, the domestic diesel shortage has improved

According to Chu jiewang, "as long as the international oil price does not soar sharply in the future, the current wholesale price of diesel should have peaked. The diesel shortage will be alleviated by the beginning of next year."

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